Ties on Pigs
Sunday, October 31, 2004
  The Paper Tiger by Andy

I sense that there is some frustration among Republicans because there seems to have been little change in the polls due to the three videos put out by terrorists last week that virtually endorsed Senator Kerry. To most Republicans those videos are obvious reasons why you would want to keep Bush in office.

I believe one of the reasons why Kerry has not been hurt in the polls is because it has given him the opportunity to talk tough about going after the terrorists. Many undecided voters are probably encouraged by his tough talk. Many of us know, however, that it is just talk, designed to arouse voters, and that Kerry is a pacifist at heart. People need to realize that when Osama bin Laden labeled the United States as a paper tiger, it was before Bush was in the White House. The terrorists recognize Kerry as another paper tiger and hope to see him running this country.

It is crucial we do not let this happen. If we let up on the pressure on organizations such as Al Qaeda, it will allow them to regroup and plan another devastating attack on our country.
  Casualties in Perspective by Andy

There is considerable talk from the left on how devastating the war in Iraq is and the amount of chaos that is there. In order to put this into perspective, I thought I would drum up some statistics of US military casualties (source: http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/casualty/castop.htm).

Year       Active Duty Casualties
1992          1,293
1993          1,213
1994          1,075
1995          1,040
1996          974
1997          817
1998          826
1999          795
2000          774
2001          890
2002          1,007

Compare these numbers to the 610 active US military personnel that have been killed in the war in Iraq over the past year. So why does it seem like there are orders of magnitude more military casualties this past year than during the Clinton years? The answer, of course, is the media. Every time a marine is killed, it is broadcasted on the front page of every liberal newspaper in the country.

Every soldier that dies is a tragedy, but we need to keep things in perspective. There were over 27 times as many murders in our country than casualties in the war during the same time period. In total, the Vietnam War had 58,000 US casualties, over 50 times as many as the total in this war. The Korean War had 38,000 US casualties. World War II had over 400,000 US casualties.

The truth is that the engagement in Iraq has been a stunning success and when considering the enemies at play there, we should only be impressed by what our military has been able to accomplish.
Saturday, October 30, 2004
  The Great Divide by Dave

The great divide in this country has been the topic of many articles this election season and I thought I would add one more straw to the haybale here. Several years ago I read an interesting book by Rabbi David Lapin called "Americas Real War". It was a response to the overused and misused term "war" applied to every political football of that time; the drug "war", the "war" on poverty, the "war" on crime, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

The good Rabbi's assertion was that the real crisis in American politics was the increasing divide between those that believe in God, and those that don't. It was a good read and it was satisfying on an intellectual level, but it didn't really hit home with numbers...until now.

This last couple of weeks we have been hit with a couple of very interesting facts about the electorate of 2004. Both the Jewish vote and the Black vote are migrating away from their monolithic loyalties to the Democratic party.

Peter Beinart wrote an article that explains the Jewish vote as essentially split between those that attend services and find Israel to be very important to them, and those more secular Jews that are not as religious and not as concerned about Israel. These two groups are roughly the Orthodox and the non-Orthodox. Rabbi Lapin is from the former group and is a good representative of their viewpoint, I think.

Likewise, the Washington Post published an article a short time ago lamenting that the black support for Kerry had dropped to 69% and support for Bush had risen to 18%.

Now conservatives won't get too excited on face value, because the overwhelming majority of both Jews and Blacks support the Democrats still. But if you look beneath the surface there is some startling news there. Gore received some 90% of the black vote in 2000, with just 9% going for Bush and 1% presumably for Nader or Buchanan. This year, 69% Kerry, 18% Bush, leaving 11% undecided. 11% !!! Not only did Bush double his support in the black communities, another 11% are still thinking about it! If these numbers manifest themselves on Tuesday, Kerry will have lost a minimum of ten points with a possibility of 20 from the Democratic mainstream.

The reason given in the article for the split in the black communities is on religious grounds. Blacks that actually attend services and want to follow the gospel of Jesus Christ are increasingly becoming aware of the great divide between their religious views and those secular views of the Democratic Party.

Another strong indicator of the veritas of Rabbi's thesis is the good Rabbi's own work. He is president of Toward Tradition, a group dedicated to Jewish-Christian dialog and the recognition that God-fearing folk of all stripes have much more in common than not, and that they have much more to fear from the secular left than from each other.

In 1998, Pope John Paul II issued an apology to Jewish people everywhere. The Christian right in America is making headway every day reaching out to the Jewish communities in this country. Evangelical Christians are Jews best friend and Israel's best friend outside their own communities. There is a coming together going on that is rather amazing. Now let's not get too overly excited. There are still some very large chasms to overcome, but not so severe as that chasm between God and those that refuse to acknowledge Him.

When I read Rabbi Lapin's book years ago, I gave it an intellectual nod. It was something conservatives could sit back in the parlor and discuss over cognac and cigars while plotting to take over the world (that is for the fever swamp folks out there from the Michael Moore crowd). It is funny how shocking it can be when ideas discussed in closed circles start manifesting themselves in society.

Regardless of the results on Tuesday, Theistic Conservatism is on the march in this great land of ours. Ronald Reagan started something big and it continues on. God Bless America and tell all of your Republican friends to vote and all of your Democrat friends to stay home on Tuesday.

  Praise for Laura by Andy

This election has become full of anxiety and stress, but through it all it has helped remind me what a great leader we have right now. Part of the Republican campaign is to emphasize the heart and soul of this President, and for good reason. I believe those aspects of him are very strong. Certainly, being with a woman for 27 years will change a person, so I figure Laura has something to do with the man W is. We are lucky to have such a great First Lady. 
Friday, October 29, 2004
  If Osama's Video had a Cover by Andy

After seeing bin Laden's new message, this is what I thought of. Clearly, Osama was trying to tap into the popularity of Michael Moore's film by mirroring the same rants. After all, Fahrenheit 9/11 is responsible for generating more hatred for America and her leader than any other single publication since as long as I can remember.

  New Osama Video By Andy

Well. My initial reaction is that Osama clearly received this week’s DNC talking points. Although he appears to have missed the blame Bush for the Hurricanes point.  
  Boldest Blame of All by Andy

According to this billboard, the hurricanes are now Bush's fault. After the debates, we were actually joking about Kerry accusing the President for the Hurricanes since it makes about as much sense as most of the other blames. I didn't actually think that there are people out there that are really that out there. 
Thursday, October 28, 2004
  Azzam the American by Andy

We should always take terrorist threats seriously, but in this case we have a good reason to believe that this new video is a bluff. Quite obviously it is a political tool meant to manipulate the election, but is there anything real behind it? I doubt it. Why would they show their hand before an attack? They did not warn us before 9/11. To do so could have ruined years of planning and preparation. I believe the terrorists are unable to deliver a significant attack prior to the election and this is the best they can do. Why? Because we have got them on the run. The United States is on the offense now, not the terrorists. They are playing defense.

There are a lot of Americans that believe that Bush's administration is intensifying the Islamic-terrorist movement. They believe Bush is strengthening the enemy and making them more dangerous. If that were the case, wouldn't the terrorists prefer to see Bush re-elected? If the terrorists feared Kerry's appeasement strategy, shouldn't they try to undermine Kerry's campaign? This is obviously not the case. The terrorists fear Bush and they know we are winning. They see Kerry as the "paper tiger" and would much rather see him in the White House. 
  Proof Terrorists want Kerry to Win by Andy

This is too rich. An insurgent organization has put out a video stating they have stolen the Al Qaqaa explosives and they are threatening to use them against our troops. First off, why tell us about them? Why not just use them if they have them? The answer, of course, is because their purpose is to manipulate the people who watch the video.

More significantly, why come out with this a year and a half after they were stolen? The answer is obvious-- because of the media storm about the story. This video is clearly politically motivated. This pretty much highlights the fact that the terrorists want to see Kerry elected with no doubt in the matter.

With the profound evidence showing that the explosives were gone before we arrived, one can easily interpret this as Kerry indirectly conspiring with the enemy. Kind of reminds me of Vietnam.
  Must See Movie! I wish it had better distribution... looks like a winner: In the Face of Evil 
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
  Missing Explosives Blow up in Kerry’s Face by Andy

I am stunned. It is mind-boggling how the Kerry campaign has jumped at this missing munitions story. Talk about not thinking it through. It is now coming out that Russia helped Saddam get those munitions (and most likely other weapons) out of Iraq and into Syria before the war. The evidence is now so heavily in favor of Bush it is ridiculous.

Talk about a backfire. Kerry shows what a dishonest opportunist he is. Kerry criticizes our military for the purpose of his own political gain (recall Vietnam war crime accusations). Kerry points out how dangerous Saddam was and what he could offer terrorists. Finally, Kerry highlights the best argument as to what happened to any WMDs if they existed before the war.

Earlier, Kerry claimed this is one of the colossal mistakes of this administration. If this is the best final week punch Kerry can throw, all I can conclude is that Iraq is going very well overall and that the President’s mistakes are not very significant. 
  Hobbit Skeletons Found by Andy

This is odd... they lived as recent as 18,000 years ago according to the dating techniques.  
  Progress for America Ad This ad put out by Progress for America is one of the best ads I have seen from a 527. If you haven't seen it, take a look: www.ashleysstory.com.  
Monday, October 25, 2004
  Why Football is a Republican Sport by Andy

The sport of football is a great illustration of the traditional American ethic. When you play football, you have to be willing to pick up the ball and charge into a pack of 350 pound men who want to tear you in half. It is this sense of self sacrifice for the purpose of something you believe in that encapsulates the ethics of the Republican Party.

The amount of punishment endured by the bodies of football players is tremendous; players get leveled on a regular basis. There is a certain degree of expectation placed on the individual. You have to work hard and contribute to the common good.

Liberals generally dislike this mode of thinking. However, it is this ethic that keeps this country strong and our nation safe. To have a volunteer army, we must have this kind of ethic. The rest of the world knows we are willing to make sacrifices to uphold our ideals. I am deeply thankful for the brave men and women of our armed forces who are willing to pick up that ball. 
Friday, October 22, 2004
  Scary Thought by Andy

Clinton aspires to be the next UN General Secretary? This is a big reason to make sure Bush is re-elected. Is it just me, or is this a terrifying prospect of Kerry being President and Clinton running the UN at the same time?
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
  Almost Done by Dave

Almost Done. Less than two weeks left in a very tiring and draining campaign for all those that care. The temptation is to relax at the end, at any sign of good news. But we can't. The stakes are too high.

This election is about one thing: Terrorism.

Bush will win by more than the polls are showing in the popular vote and he will win comfortably in the electoral college. In twenty years, we'll have trouble remember who John Kerry was.

Let's keep up the fight and retire John Kerry's dream of ever living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. He doesn't need another mansion.
Friday, October 15, 2004
  Poll Bots by Andy

We all know that the post-debate polls on news sites such as FoxNews and CNN are not accurate. Before the first debate, Terry McAuliffe sent an email to democratic supporters encouraging them to hit all of the online polls to make sure their numbers look good. It seems many enthusiasts took it a bit further and actually wrote automatic bots to inflate the polls for their guy.

A bot is basically a computer program that imitates the actions of a human user on a web site over the Internet. They are actually quite simple to write, particularly for a function like submitting a poll result. These bots can hit the same poll over and over again and the poll servers are generally not smart enough to figure them out. The bots can even be anonymous so you can’t track where they originated from by coming through anonymous proxy servers.

For the third Presidential debate last night, I decided to write my own bot, but instead of hitting the polls, mine simply recorded the current poll results at regular intervals. I then imported the results into Excel and charted them. I have a strong suspicion that the polls are being controlled by bots.

The graph below is for the FoxNews instant poll. I would note that the Kerry trend line is much straighter. I would guess the poll bots are hitting the Kerry option more often because there is less variation for times of the day (middle of the night vs. morning time). It has a remarkably consistent rate and is nearly a straight line through most of the day. The Bush line fluctuates more according to the time of day.

The bot influence may not be obvious, but it will be more apparent after you review the CNN poll, which is far stranger. I was able to find the URL for the poll by poking around, but it does not look like the poll was ever published to the CNN web site! So, the poll was created in their database, but it was never actually displayed to users. It seems CNN decided to put up a different poll at the last minute that asked whether the debates answered your foreign and domestic policy questions, instead of who won the debate.

It seems the other bots also found the poll URL even though it was not published. It received 2.5 million votes! By looking at the trend chart below, it is quite obvious that bots are controlling the outcome, although it seems there were bots working for both Kerry and Bush.

I have emailed CNN a question of where the poll was posted and how they received 2.5 million votes, but I have not received an answer from them.

All times are PST. 
  Debate III Review by Andy

I was happy with how well Bush did in this debate. He nailed Kerry on most of the issues and was able to offset Kerry's polish and articulation with passion and sincerity. By the end, I am not sure how many non-biased viewers could take Kerry seriously and nothing more than a phony suit.

The one issue I thought Kerry came across strong was on the dividedness of the country. I believe this is an issue that independent viewers are sensitive to. The part that burns me up is that the fringe left and the democratic leadership are largely responsible for the division. There is no doubt that the democrats goal was to divide the country over the past year or two. Zell Miller called them out on it earlier during the campaign. Plus, with the propaganda dispersed by the angry left, it is no wonder there is a wedge in our society.

Also, anyone else out there feel like Kerry’s anti-military record has not been exposed enough (speaking of Zell Miller)?
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
  New Swift Boat Ads by Andy

If you haven't seen them, check them out. They should be effective. 
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
  Sirens of Europe by Andy

Currently the left is yearning for the European way of life. In Europe, pleasure and recreation takes precedence over hard work. They emphasize the community over the individual and they embrace a secular society. The current divide in our country between the left and the right mirrors the divide between traditional American values (right) and the European values (left).

How do 30-hour work weeks sound? How about several months of vacation a year?

It may sound great, but it is imperative our country steer clear from the Sirens of Europe. America stands out from the majority of our neighbors across the sea because of our outstanding work ethic. We have an unsual willingness to endure hard times, not just for our own wealth and prosperity, but also for the greater good. Admittedly there is a segment of our society that relishes greed and self-indulgence, but I believe the average American has an amazing aptitude for personal sacrifice. We have an astounding culture where individuals are willing to break themselves for the betterment of others. Not just in hard work and toil, but we also have the courage to risk our lives by engaging in violent conflict when it is important (brave does not come to mind when I think of the French). We understand the meaning of duty and honor.

This can certainly be seen in our foreign policy. Our voluntary hardships have been a primary factor in the global economy and the world has enjoyed a period of remarkable stability due to our military strength. And in the end it has made us successful.

Despite this, there is the sense that anti-Americanism is growing in Europe. Many say it is because of the War in Iraq, but I believe in many cases it has a much more ideological base. Publicly they may call our work ethic shameful, but it seems in reality they despise it. They see our eager capitalism as a source of stress and discomfort. They view it is a means of oppression because of the high expectations placed on the individual. I'll admit that I have seen pockets of an American-like work ethic in various parts of Europe, but I think the mainstream Europeans dislike it.

Of course, as everyone knows, Europeans tend to hate George W. Bush.


Our President is the modern icon for the traditional American ethic and determination.
Saturday, October 09, 2004
  Debate II Review by Andy

All in all, the President did very well last night. He certainly held his own in domestic issues. There is no doubt that Kerry talks on both sides of an issue, and Bush needs to point that out in the next debate as a reiteration that it is important to look at this Senator’s voting record instead of taking what he says at face value.

Foreign policy is Bush’s strength and it showed last night. Although, I do believe his criticism could have been more succinct. I do not think it was a good idea for the Bush camp to let go of the flip-flop issue. It was not effective in the first debate because he never elaborated on the flip-flops. This is a very strong motivator for undecided voters and it is important that the indecisiveness of Kerry is punctuated. If a viewer only watches the debates they might be compelled to believe that the flip-flop accusations are not well-founded, which of course is ridiculous.

Also, Bush did a good job criticizing Kerry’s record on domestic issues, but his history of being soft on the military was not highlighted enough. This issue will be important to security moms. It is crucial they realize how anti-war and anti-military this guy is. It is mind-boggling that the democrats are selling him as a hawk.

There may still be a way that Bush can emphasize this during the domestic issues debate next week. When commenting on how Kerry plans on paying for all of his social programs, Bush should point out Kerry’s history of cutting military and intelligence funding and that despite what Kerry would like you to believe, America should expect that he would continue on this same track. If Kerry were President, the $87 billion for our troops would have been vetoed.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I look forward to seeing the polls next week.
Friday, October 08, 2004
  Big Night by Andy

First, of course, is Bush's last opportunity to debate foreign policy. But then immediately after the debate, the Afghans will be conducting their first election. I hope all goes well for the Afghan people and the success of this election.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
  You can't handle the truth! by Andy

This morning on Regis and Ripa, Edwards compared the VP debate to the movie A Few Good Men. Of course Edwards was Tom Cruise and Cheney was Jack Nicholson. I find this interesting because it shows a mentality that is degrading the importance of the War on Terror and giving the greatest importance to exposing the supposed immorality of the current administration.

I do not think this comparison goes well for Edwards if you remove the cartoony caricatures typical of Hollywood and put it in the framework of the War on Terror. When Nicholson says, "You want me on this wall; you need me on this wall!" I would have to agree. Call me crazy, but it seems to be a far better option to elect the seasoned general over the young, self-serving lawyer. 
  Deceptions by Andy

Well, it looks like the primary strategy of the Kerry campaign now is to undermine people's trust in the Bush administration. Both Edwards and Kerry are repeatedly stating that President Bush has misled the country.

This is unbelievable coming from a pathological liar. As far as I can tell, their belief that Bush has deceived the country is only based on the fact that the President does not interpret what is happening the same way they do. They call him a liar because he does not share their opinion.

Bush will need to shut this down right away in the debate tomorrow. The best way I can think of is by pointing out that Americans can decide for themselves who is honest and who is not, and they do not need to be told who to trust by politicians.

Kerry's strategy will appeal to the Bush-hating crowd, but it will certainly back-fire in the end. But hey, if Kerry continues to energize his base I guess we can look forward to more vandalizing, theft, trespassing, and fraudulence.
Saturday, October 02, 2004
  Polls Newsweek has the race back to neck and neck. However, according to Little Green Footballs, the poll sought opinions of a disproportionate number of Democrats. Sloppy? Or Bias?
  The Master Kerry is the Master d'Bater.
Friday, October 01, 2004
  Debate Master by Andy

We can all feel at ease that if John Kerry is elected President and he has to debate Osama Bin Laden, he will win that debate. Thank goodness. Nevermind how he has performed in the Senate for 20 years and how he has run his campaign.

Kerry's two primary weaknesses with foreign policy were that he is indecisive and he will make our military weak. I am not sure why Bush decided only to go after the first. When Kerry claimed he would shut down the bunker bomb program, it would have been a perfect opportunity to point out all of the other military programs Kerry has tried to shutdown over the years.

I agree with Jason that Kerry won the debate because he kept Bush on the defensive. Looking past the poise and articulation, the content in Bush's statements was much better. Unfortunately, the undecided will be persuaded more by the presentation, not the substance.

  I'm Disappointed I don't think the President came off as strong as he could or should have last night. As far as presentation, I have to declare Kerry the winner. In substance, I side with Bush, but I am partisan. I will note that 90% of Kerry's statements were criticisms of Bush without any real plan of his own. When he did have a plan it was something ridiculous like hosting a summit regarding Iraq that will magically solve all problems.

Because most of Kerry's statements were criticisms Bush came off as defensive. He also stumbled saying "Umm" too many times.

Analysis: Kerry may gain a slight advantage with undecided voters. Neither candidate buried the other. Bush missed an opportunity to pull even further ahead of Kerry. This debate was supposed to be owned by Bush, but was not.
Pushers for a Theistic Conservative agenda. Shining the light of truth on the muddy waters of moral relativism.

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